A World without XP?
Worldwide there are about half a billion desktops and laptops running on Windows XP.
For the summer of 2013, Netmarketshare reported a declining, but still spectacular high proportion of 37% for Windows XP. This includes older computers used privately and by SMEs in the northern hemisphere which have been functioning forever. However, Windows XP, with many a cracked and outdated version, is primarily being used on computers in the emerging markets.
End of Life Spring 2014
Replacement of the outdated operating system is likely to accelerate in spring of 2014, after support for Windows XP expires. Rapid disappearance is less likely. The difficult economic situation which many middle-class families face, combined with the temptation to invest in more prestigious mobile devices instead of the family PC will save many a Windows XP from demolition.
How does this affect IT security?
We expect a moderate risk increase resulting from several hundred unpatched XP computers. Despite the fact that so many computers with a growing level of open vulnerabilities will be moving about, basically we do not expect a marked risk increase. This is due to the fact that many of these computers were initially in poor condition, poorly maintained and high risk. A sudden rise in risk would result if three hundred million perfectly maintained XP computers would be left unpatched next May.
Private and third-party computers at ETH Zurich
On the whole all this does not put ETH under increased pressure. There is however an overlap between the outside world and ETH; private computers that appear on the ETH network via WiFi or VPN. This includes third-party computers which are used by relatives of ETH members. Currently, XP is still fairly common amongst these users. In extreme cases, outsiders with private computers also sometimes appear in the virtual halls of the university. We are not referring to hackers, but to relatives and acquaintances who are illegally „given“ a VPN account so that they can watch Swiss TV channels online even from abroad.
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