Tackling the energy crisis in Europe is a common effort

Optimizing the response to the gas shortage

In an effort to better understand what Europe can do to survive the winter, we at the Reliability and Risk Engineering Lab analyzed the impact of a total Russian gas disruption to understand how a gas shortage could be best compensated in Europe in the coming winter. In our analysis, we modeled the struggle to supply and consume gas in Europe, formulating it as a cost-minimization optimization problem. The model selects the optimal pathway to substitute the missing Russian gas. We find three main compensation strategies along the gas supply chain that are deployed in combination:

1. Additional gas imports from other sources than Russia
2. A shift of electricity and heat generation to non-gas-fired technologies
3. Reduction of the final energy demands electricity, heat, and industrial gas

Our preliminary results suggest that most countries will need to reduce some of their electricity, heat, and industrial gas demand. However, the additional gas imports and the shift to other technologies can relieve most of the stress if all countries in Europe support each other in this fight. Energy savings as a precautionary measure paired with a mild winter are the most effective tool to tackle the energy crisis. In this blogpost, we comment only on the preliminary results of the third strategic action to reduce the final energy demands in various winter scenarios; in our upcoming study, we investigate all three compensation strategies in combination.

Public effort and a tiny bit of luck

The energy crisis is a struggle to meet Europe’s final energy demands. This is because gas is required for electricity generation, heating, and as an input in the industrial sector. Reducing energy demand would be a necessary measure, if the gas available to meet the needs of these three sectors in a country is insufficient. The severity of the coming winter will determine our ability to get through it. In Figure 1, we map out three possible winter outcomes in Europe:

1. A usual winter, comparable to 2021 (center column)
2. A mild winter with additional energy savings as a precautionary measure (lower heat and electricity demand, left column)
3. A cold winter (higher heat demand, right column)

Comparisons of country-specific optimal requirements to reduce the energy demands under the different winter outcomes are depicted in Figure 1 for the electricity, heat, and industrial gas sectors. In our model, the first step to reducing the final energy demands is voluntary with minor strain to citizens: they may choose to adjust their thermostats, shops may turn off their window lighting, and the industry may use other feedstocks in production. For each sector, we identified a threshold above which voluntary demand reductions are not sufficient anymore. In the event that this threshold is surpassed, the government might need to intervene and mandate that citizens and industrial consumers reduce their consumption.

In a usual winter (Fig. 1b,e,h), voluntary demand reductions are generally sufficient for most countries. On the other hand, a cold winter (Fig. 1c,f,i) with higher heat demand puts a strain on all sectors of the energy system. As a consequence, more countries would need to significantly reduce energy demand: countries like Italy which strongly depend on gas for  electricity generation would be severely hit by the colder winter. In the worst case, those countries dependent on gas would need to cut up to almost 90% of their industrial gas consumption to keep the energy system afloat. We already see many Eastern European countries strongly reducing their gas consumption. Being lucky with a mild winter reduces the heat demand and relieves the stress of the energy crisis. As a precautionary measure, further proactive efforts to reduce electricity use would minimize any additional demand reduction requirements anywhere in Europe as observed in Figure 1a,d,g. Preemptive energy savings are the most effective tool to mitigate the impact of the gas shortage and will likely determine the extent to which we have to rely on luck.